UCLA Weather

from the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.

Wednesday - 1:03pm

Partly Cloudy

67°

High - 67°

Low - 56°

Today: Morning overcast but sunny afternoon. Chance of evening low clouds.

Five Day Forecast

Latest Average Hourly Temperatures

NOTE: THE TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY SENSOR READINGS BRIEFLY APPEARED SUSPECT ON 10 MAY. SINCE THE CAUSE FOR THESE ANOMALOUS READINGS REMAINS A MYSTERY, FURTHER SPURIOUS READINGS MAY OCCUR IN THE COMING WEEKS.

A very weak, upper level trough of low pressure is promoting fairly mundane weather in the state. It's a little breezy in spots but the trough lacks moisture for clouds...local marine layer is a different matter, albeit related to the current trough. High pressure aloft is forecast to build into the state from the west tomorrow into Thursday morning, but its center is forecast to remain well out in the Pacific. Hence, any warming trend from the high pressure should be modest, at best (most warming occurring well inland areas).

The main weather problem I have this week is how marine layer clouds will "behave". On-shore flow of varying degrees are forecast by the computer models. Weaker on-shore flow tomorrow and Thursday should promote a shallower marine layer. That, in turn, should lead to earlier clearing of daily low clouds (less areal coverage as well). Of course, small scale wind flow changes could promote persistent low clouds in some locales near the coast (not necessarily same locations each day). In short, I expect more bright sunshine tomorrow and Thursday, but don't hold me to that if you plan to spend the day at the beach.

The various models show an upper level trough deepening over the Great Basin states late Thursday into Friday. This pattern shift should promote a good on-shore flow pattern in southern California. An increase in breezy weather (particularly interior sections) is expected (more than today's brisk winds in some places). In theory, "May Gray" weather should occur west of the mountains on Friday (perhaps Saturday as well). How well clearing occurs on Friday and Saturday remains to be seen, but it may not be complete in some areas (not necessarily along the coast). I also wouldn't rule some patchy, early morning mist (mostly up against coastal facing foothills/mountains). Temperatures late this week should come down, but only in a minor way for most locales west of the mountains (little or no changes in the interior).

A new warming cycle should start around Sunday and continue into the next work week. Some model solutions favor only a few days of moderate warming (warmer than normal most areas but nothing severe). There could be a cooling cycle late next week, but again, nothing earth shattering (i.e minor cooling trend). All in all, expect mostly mundane, spring weather.

Next issued forecast/synopsis should be on Thursday, 19 May.

UCLA Forecasts and analyses are written by James Murakami

– posted: 2022-05-18

Data and technology is provided by UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

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