UCLA Weather

from the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.

Monday - 8:27pm

Partly Cloudy

64°

High - 74°

Low - 62°

Today: Mostly sunny remainder of day with some high clouds. Partly cloudy evening.

Five Day Forecast

Latest Average Hourly Temperatures

The marine layer deepened to about 2000 feet depth this morning (at least, in the L.A. Basin). Chalk that up to the effects of a coastal eddy because the surface, on-shore flow didn't increase much from yesterday. The on-shore flow is forecast to trend weaker again over the next couple of days and transition back to off-shore low late this week. Thus, coastal low clouds should be less widespread tomorrow and perhaps, restricted to the coast by Wednesday (L.A. County northward).

There was good cooling in the coastal plain from a shallow marine layer yesterday. Further cooling has occurred today. It's more modest today in the coastal plain, but the deeper marine layer has produced more noticeable cooling in the valleys (greater ocean air influence). With the models predicting weaker on-shore flow and a shallower marine layer, a minor, daytime warming trend should occur for the next couple of days. Once a full fledged, off-shore flow sets up, things should become more noticeably warming on Thursday. This should continue till Saturday.

Today's computer model consensus continues to forecast much warmer than normal weather late this week. They have, however, backed off a little on how warm it may get.Triple digit heat is looking very unlikely, and even 90 degree weather may not become widespread (at least, in the coastal plain). The models predict a decent strength, high pressure aloft, but the predicted, strength of the low level, off-shore flow is far from impressive. It may still allow ocean breezes to develop in the morning, which would limit how warm it could get. I stuck with a forecast of the upper 80s at UCLA for Friday, but I may have to whittle away on that number if tomorrow's models show only a weak, off-shore flow. (almost certain that no significant wind will occur in Santa Ana wind prone areas...even higher elevations).

Cooler weather is expected by Sunday and continue through the remainder of the month. Temperatures may fall back to seasonable or slightly cooler than normal weather by Tuesday next week (return of a defined, marine layer). Details of the weather for Halloween and beyond remain uncertain. Most show a cooling trend late next week (establishment of an upper low pressure over the western states). However, depending on which model solution is right, there could be a windy, "cool" Santa Ana wind event, just plain, marine layer weather. or cool weather with a chance of scattered showers...Coin toss.

UCLA Forecasts and analyses are written by James Murakami

– posted: 2018-10-22

Data and technology is provided by UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

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