UCLA Weather

from the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.

Saturday - 3:01pm

f

43°

High - 43°

Low - 43°

Today:

Five Day Forecast

Latest Average Hourly Temperatures

NOTE: WEATHER STATION DATA UNREACHABLE FOR UNKNOW REASON. UNSURE IF PROBLEM CAN BE FIXED.

Well, Mother Nature threw a monkey wrench into the weather forecast. What was supposed to be a relatively, straightforward forecast now contains many uncertainties. At present, a large band of precipitation covers a part of northern California (southern boundary includes northern San Luis Obispo County). Some marine layer, induced showers have occurred farther south (mostly nuisance sprinkles), but nothing of relevance has fallen so far over most of the Southland. The various, computer models show varied solutions with regard to how much wet weather will reach L.A. County.

All models have trended to mainly, light precipitation only in L.A. County (to the east and south, as well). The main storm dynamics are no longer forecast to reach much of southern California (staying mostly north of Santa Barbara County). Available water vapor associated with a cold front is pretty decent, but without good storm dynamics, precipitation from the cold front is forecast to diminish greatly from what it is currently. So, instead of widespread one inch rainfall in the L.A. County lowlands (away from the mountains), we may be hard pressed to get a quarter of an inch rain (well below that, if some of the latest, model projections are right). Rainfall from Santa Barbara County northward should still be decent (1- 2 inches). The only, consistent portion of the forecast (from a couple days ago) that remains is that the bulk of rain in L.A. County should fall in the overnight hours tonight (pretty much ending by sunrise Friday). In addition, snow levels may not get below 6500 feet (just a few inches at most above that elevation).

Most of Friday into Saturday was supposed to no more than partly cloudy. While that may still occur, a number of model solutions now show a portion of the aforementioned cold front stalling out (somewhere around Santa Barbara/Ventura Counties). Depending on where it lies, there could be some showers falling within the cloud band (includes L.A. County). Hence, I reluctantly added a slight risk of occasional, light showers for that period. Nothing significant is expected in L.A. County, however.

The forecast doesn't get any easier for the Sunday period. Most of the model resume the eastward push of the cold front during the day on Sunday (passing through L.A. County by the afternoon hours). Most model solutions do favor widespread, measurable rain in the lowlands (snow level falling to 6000 feet during the afternoon). Some model solutions show nothing wetter in L.A. County than what's expected tonight through tomorrow. There are some solutions, however, showing a wetter storm (opposite of what was predicted a couple days ago). Storm totals in the lowlands (away from the mountains) might be in the 0.5 - 0.75 inch range. At this point, the model consensus (for what it's worth), favors only modest rainfall (third inch or less).

Most longer range models show dry weather in the Southland for most of next week (Sunday storm should exit state by early Monday). Some model solution do show a minor rain threat around midweek, but that's far from certain (most keep rain north of Point Conception). There could be a threat of wet weather sometime over the subsequent weekend or slightly later, but that outlook is still quite fuzzy in details. What is probable (for now) is that no heat wave is coming anytime soon.

Next issued forecast/synopsis should be on Tuesday, 6 December.

UCLA Forecasts and analyses are written by James Murakami

– posted: 2022-12-02

Data and technology is provided by UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

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