UCLA Weather

from the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.

Monday - 11:56pm

Clear

77°

High - 89°

Low - 71°

Today: Sunny day. Clear evening.

Five Day Forecast

Latest Average Hourly Temperatures

The off-shore flow that occurred Saturday evening through this morning had more kick to it than I anticipated (even though some of the numerical models forecast such an event). Breezy weather at higher elevations was expected (peak wind gusts were over 60 mph in a few spots), but some lowland areas (campus included) also became breezy at times (peak wind gusts into the 40s; UCLA peak gust 26 mph). As of this writing, significant wind was restricted to higher elevations, but most wind gusts were under 30 mph. Periodic increases in wind are expected for the rest of the work week (last week's prediction for a midweek, marginal, on-shore flow is all but dead). Wind speeds exceeding this past weekend's levels may occur on Thursday if some model solutions verify,

The gusty, off-shore flow winds helped boost daytime temperatures higher than expected yesterday. Some areas on the Westside reached 90 degrees (Santa Monica Airport, for one). The off-shore flow was strong enough in the afternoon to warm the Santa Monica Pier to 88 degrees for a brief time. Weaker off-shore flow support aloft today, however, has led to modestly lower temperatures near the immediate coast (most areas). I increased the campus temperature from last week's forecast, but so far, ocean breezes have kept the high temperature just under 90 degrees. If today's NAM is right, the surface off-shore flow will be stronger tomorrow, which should promote widespread 90 degree readings in the coastal plain (campus included). Warmest locales may reach the upper 90s though low 90s should be more common. Depending on where the off-shore flow blows during the overnight hours (doesn't have to blow strongly), temperatures should be fairly mild (as was the case this morning). Some areas may not cool below 70 degrees.

The off-shore flow this week should be weakest on Wednesday thanks to a passing, nearby, "inside slider", upper air trough. However, a number of models show rapidly increasing off-shore flow Wednesday night into Thursday. There is potential for higher mountain winds to exceed 70 mph. Some lowland areas could see wind gusts to 55 mph. The winds should decrease on Friday, but an end to the off-shore flow pattern isn't forecast till Saturday afternoon or evening.

Much warmer than normal weather should prevail for the work week (even by the coast). Wednesday should be the coolest of the work week, but the coastal plain shouldn't get any cooler than the mid-80s (probably higher inland, coastal plain). Some beaches, however, may cool back to the upper 70s. Stronger off-shore flow should promote much warmer weather again on Thursday/Friday. Some model forecasts show as much warming as with the current off-shore flow. There is some potential for a little warmer event in some places.

All the models show remark agreement on the collapse of the West Coast high pressure on Sunday. As a Pacific Northwest, upper air trough develops southward, noticeable cooling should occur on Saturday (near seasonable levels). Cooler than normal is expected beginning on Sunday (possibly lasting through the end of the month). At the least, widespread, marine layer clouds should occur west of the mountains. Some model solutions even show marine layer drizzle in some areas (mainly Inland Empire southward to San Diego County). Breezy weather from a moderately strong, on-shore flow should occur in the interior. A few model scenarios included cold air instability showers for the local mountains, but that appears as a remote threat (based on today's model consensus). If this occurs, however, it would happen on the 29th or 30th.

UCLA Forecasts and analyses are written by James Murakami

– posted: 2019-10-21

Data and technology is provided by UCLA's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences

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